The Scientific Evidence About Project Planning
Recently, I had the opportunity to attend an exceptional lecture featuring Bent Flyvbjerg, the author of ‘How Big Things Get Done,’ hosted by Morten Münster. Bent has spent decades assembling an impressive database comprising approximately 26,000 meticulously documented projects.
The Shocking Statistics
When this wealth of data is extrapolated, it reveals that a staggering 99.5% of all projects are over budget, over time, or under benefits.
Professor Bent Flyvbjerg highlights that IT projects often face significant delays, with the average project being approximately 50% delayed and the most delayed 18% of projects experiencing an average delay of 455%.
Key Insight: This suggests a favor for more frequent high-level forecasting, avoiding the burden of extensive planning that does not yield more accurate results.
The Real Problem: Missing Benefits Data
While this revelation is undeniably disheartening, what strikes me the most from the lecture is the scarcity of detailed data regarding whether these projects actually achieve the intended benefits.
It’s astonishing that despite the vast amount of information available, there’s a profound lack of insight into whether these initiatives successfully deliver the promised advantages.
This realization is both astonishing and concerning: we anticipate going over budget or extending timelines, yet we lack clarity on whether the envisioned benefits are ever realized.
What We Must Do in 2024
Looking ahead to 2024, it’s imperative that we begin measuring the value hypothesis of our features and product backlog items. This strategic shift will enable us to adapt our approach, ensuring that we create the intended value or adjust it based on what we learn.
The implications are clear:
- We need to move beyond tracking time and budget alone
- We must establish clear metrics for benefit realization
- We should measure value continuously, not just at project end
- We need to be willing to pivot based on what the data shows
Breaking Out of the Black Box
The “black box” of project benefits doesn’t have to remain closed. By implementing Evidence-Based Management practices and focusing on outcome metrics rather than output metrics, we can finally answer the question: “Did this project actually deliver the value we expected?”
This isn’t just about better measurement—it’s about fundamentally changing how we approach project work and product development.
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Lad os diskutere hvordan Evidence-Based Management kan hjælpe din organisation med at bevise benefits – ikke bare antage dem.
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